Media+’s Top 5 Media Predictions for 2024

December 15, 2023

By: Katrina Stroh, Vice President

Ad-supported video streaming will continue momentum

Broadcast and cable will likely continue its years-long decline in overall share YoY, with more and more time spent shifting to video streaming.

Linear TV: We expect linear TV to see heightened viewership in February and in Fall. February will benefit from new scripted content releases from the Fall ’23 that will air in February 2024 due to the writers’ strike. Meanwhile, Linear TV viewership tends to see annual gains each Fall as highly-rated live sports returns with NFL and college football leading the pack.
Video Streaming: Streaming sees highest usage in summer months with kids out of school, less fresh programming on broadcast/cable and less live sports viewing in the mix. Ad-supported video streaming currently only makes up 25% of total video streaming usage, however we expect that see significant growth in 2024, with Prime Video rolling out ad-supported options to their existing Prime members with an option to pay for a no ads.
Exclusive Content: Currently only 34% of content titles are exclusive to a streaming service or linear channel. With publishers wanting to maximize ad revenues, they are changing the rules and enabling various streaming and Linear networks to share access to the same content, meaning individual streaming platform offerings will become muddier, likely leading to the consolidation of streaming platforms in coming years.

Implications: In order to best maximize eyeballs and cost efficiencies, TV and Streaming programs should take into account seasonal changes by dialing up each platform in accordance to the different viewing patterns throughout the year.

Plan early and be agile in preparation for record political spending

Political ad spend is expected to heat up in 2024, projected at $10.2 billion, a 13% increase from 2020.

Video channels will comprise the majority of Political spending with the top three channels being Broadcast TV, Connected TV, and Cable TV. This will create significant demand on inventory during key windows therefore leading to significant price increases.
Political Windows: Q1 is expected to see increased pressure with both the Presidential and State Primaries, however September and October will experience the largest demands with highest pressure in mid-late October leading up to the November 5th Election date.
- Inventory experiencing the largest impacts:
  - Broadcast TV
  - News + Prime dayparts
  - Shorter ad formats – :15s

Implications: While it will be best to completely avoid heavier political pressure weeks, there are ways we can minimize impacts through a thoughtful buying approach that shifts inventory in areas less impacted.

Podcasts will drive overall growth in the audio category

Overall audio listening is expected to continue to increase in 2024 with radio retaining the highest share of ad-supported listening overall at 69%, while podcasts dominate streaming listenership and drive the most category growth.

At home listening makes up 50% of total ad-supported listening and is expected to gain momentum as more people work from home and adapt to smart speakers/digital devices enabling seamless audio throughout the home.
Q3’23 AM/FM Radio in-car listening rebounded to pre-pandemic levels comprising 85% of total ad-supported listening in-car.
Podcasts currently contribute 27% of total ad-supported streaming and growth is expected as people seek out content with spoken word over music. There is a sense of trust and community with podcasts that is attracting audiences.
Pandora and Spotify contribute two of the largest streaming audiences overall, however their share of ad-supported listening will decline as competition (Amazon, Apple, iHeart, Audacy) continues to steal share.

Implications: With listening patterns continuing to shift and grow, audio has never been a better place to explore as a viable awareness channel in your media mix.

Social will continue to evolve at an unprecedented pace

Immersive Content: Augmented and virtual reality are no longer futuristic concepts but have become ingrained in the overall social experience. Pinterest, Snapchat, Meta and LinkedIn are all investing in different ways to integrate this technology into their environments to enhance engagement within their channels.
Social Commerce: Social commerce saw huge growth in 2023 and we expect that to continue as consumers are blurring the lines between social interaction and e-commerce. Given that social commerce connects users to a seamless purchase experience, we predict more ecommerce success from platforms like Instagram Shops, Facebook Marketplace, and Pinterest Shopping. Other players like Snapchat and TikTok will likely put forward more competitive efforts to compete in this space.
Artificial Intelligence and Personalization: Meta will continue to lead the charge stating that “AI will be our biggest investment area in 2024” but we expect to see competing social platforms step-up their AI game as well. Two areas we expect to see evolve through AI across the various social channels are: improved campaign optimizations (audience targeting, creative touchups and resizing, text improvements) and generative AI where social platforms will aid in building creative or copy from scratch.

Implications: With the pace of growth and changes within social platforms, this channel enables great opportunity to test and experiment with different evolving ad models and offerings.

As 3rd Party cookies go away, 1st party data and contextual targeting will play a larger role

In September 2024, 3^rd Party cookies will officially be deprecated by Google, who has been the longstanding holdout in this arduous battle for privacy. While many technology companies have developed work arounds through elaborate device grids, it will in fact impact the current access to many types of 3^rd party data used in media targeting like detailed demographics, behavioral/in-market/interest and retargeting. As a result, clients will need to increase reliance on more contextual targeting and mobilizing their own first party data.

Implications: In preparation, Media+ has onboarded Resonate, largely known as a cookie proof platform we will leverage on behalf of our clients to minimize the disruption to our current targeting practices.

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